IMPORTANT NOTICE :
NEVER trust wiring or ACH instructions sent via email. ALWAYS confirm with the sender by phone or in-person. Cyber criminals are hacking email accounts and sending emails with fake wiring instructions. These emails are convincing, sophisticated, and often appear to come from someone you know or work with. Always independently confirm wiring or ACH instructions in-person or via a telephone call to a trusted and verified phone number. NEVER wire or ACH money without double-checking that the wiring or ACH instructions are correct.
The Weekly Economic & Market Recap
March 15, 2019
In late 2017 and early 2018, the global economy was enjoying coordinated global growth thanks to years of extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy that allowed economies to heal from the devastation of the financial crisis. With growth moving in the right direction, global central banks slowly began the arduous process of normalizing monetary policy. Unfortunately, the global economy began to experience tightening financial conditions and escalating geopolitical risks, which triggered global growth to decelerate as 2018 came to an end. Moreover, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently downgraded its 2019 global GDP forecast to 3.3% from 3.5%. One of the main contributors to the waning global growth predicament is the deteriorating Chinese economy. Chinese retail sales recently increased at the slowest pace in 7 years and industrial output grew at 5.3%, which is the weakest figure since 2009. An additional concern to Chinese officials is the recent 40 basis point rise in the unemployment rate, which brings the unemployment rate to the highest level in 2 years. Furthermore, Chinese officials recently met and lowered the annual growth rate target for 2019 to between 6 and 6.5%. To curb the economic slowdown, Chinese officials are loosening both fiscal and monetary policy. Some of the initiatives policymakers have taken include a 3% rate cut to the value-added tax for manufacturers, a push to encourage banks to lend to private companies that employ the most workers, temporarily halting its deleveraging campaign to clean up the shadow banking system and lifting government spending quotas to increase infrastructure investment. The market has taken notice of the efforts policymakers are making to stabilize growth and the Shanghai Composite is up roughly 20% since late December. It is our view that the recent policy measures Chinese officials have taken will help avoid a hard landing, however, a significant rebound in growth is not probable given the global risks and uncertainties that still abound.
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