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The Weekly Economic & Market Recap
October 23, 2020
The election is only 11 days away. Many investors understand that potentially we could see a fundamental shift in direction regarding our economy, points of regulatory emphasis, and tax policy. The next president is also likely to decide who the next Fed Chairman will be when Chair Powell’s term ends in February 2022. Even the shape and functioning of some of our most significant institutions may change. All of this could have investment implications. Outside of a contested election, we may have more clarity on some of these questions in a few weeks. There is substantial uncertainty surrounding the election, but regardless of the election results there are important cyclical and secular factors that investors need to consider. We are confident that the economy is on the path toward a cyclical recovery after an incredibly short and very severe recession. With the efficacy of additional monetary stimulus more
questionable, or at the very least less impactful, it is highly likely that we will see additional fiscal stimulus once the fog of the election dissipates. Fiscal stimulus will help ensure that the economy stays on a sustainable growth path. Additionally, several secular disruptors will remain in place. First, the prospect of heightened friction between the U.S. and China as the fight for global economic and political primacy between the two superpowers heats up. Second, the rise of populism has not yet peaked. Populism is the creation of higher levels of economic inequality and the sense that many people have been left behind, which have only been amplified by the impacts of the coronavirus driven recession. Protectionism and rising nationalistic sentiments will likely have a detrimental effect on trade and global supply chains for many years to come. Finally, technology is an essential aspect of productivity growth, but it also is a major disruptive force that shifts work and business processes. Technology, and the ongoing digitization of our daily lives, generally lifts the economy (and our standard of living), but it creates winners and losers. Regardless of who is in power in Washington, these factors will remain critical aspects of the investment landscape.
Click below to listen to this week's Peapack Private Wealth Management Market Report as heard on WCBS NewsRadio 880.