IMPORTANT WIRE FRAUD NOTICE: Never trust wiring instructions sent via email. Always confirm with the sender by phone or in-person. Cyber criminals are hacking email accounts and sending emails with fake wiring instructions. These emails are convincing, sophisticated, and often appear to come from someone you know or work with. Always independently confirm wiring instructions in-person or via a telephone call to a trusted and verified phone number. NEVER wire money without double-checking that the wiring instructions are correct.
The Weekly Economic & Market Recap
September 14, 2018
Economic activity, according to the most recent FOMC statement, “has been rising at a strong rate”. A sizable contributor to the current economic strength is the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which was signed into law in December of 2017. Many economists questioned the rationale for pushing through tax cuts at such a mature phase in the economic cycle, however, federal receipts have actually increased $26.2 billion in the first 10 months of the fiscal year. Examining the breakdown of federal revenue reveals that receipts from companies are lower compared to a year ago (mostly from accelerated depreciation due to capital expenditures), while individual tax receipts have more than compensated for the lower corporate tax receipts. Even with slightly higher revenues, the budget deficit has expanded dramatically due to the increase in spending that was authorized by Congress. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that fiscal 2018 will result in a deficit of close to $800 billion. The gross national debt is projected to be $21.5 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2018 and the net federal debt is 78% of GDP. Based upon the projection of national debt growing faster than GDP moving forward, the CBO expects the net federal debt to be 100%of GDP by 2030. The two main ways to solve the issue would be to either cut spending or raise revenue. On the spending side, more than 60% of the budget is directed towards entitlements (Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security), which are politically very difficult to touch. On the revenue side, the goal is for GDP growth to accelerate, but without a meaningful increase in productivity lasting GDP growth will be hard to achieve. The current growth rate of the federal deficit is not sustainable and it will be a headwind for long-term secular economic growth.
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