The Weekly Economic & Market Recap
January 13, 2017
Aspects of the Trump rally seem to be unravelling to some degree. The dollar has been very strong since the election. The U.S. Dollar Index (DYX) rallied from 97 in early November to over 103 in early January, but weakened to around 101 this week. Dollar selling was more pronounced after Presidential-elect Donald Trump’s press conference on Tuesday. To a large measure, the financial market’s post-election reaction has been predicated on the expectation of tax reform and infrastructure spending. Mr. Trump’s first press conference since being elected president focused on Russia and “fake news”, as opposed to the anticipated economic and tax policy changes. Another sign of reversal has been in the Treasury market. After a selloff that took the 10-year Treasury to a 2.65% yield, Treasuries reversed and the 10-year settled at 2.40% as the week closed. The equity market sectors and industries that have been strong post election have begun to see some consolidation (such as banks). It would not be surprising to see a broader price adjustment as the new administration takes office and confronts the hard work ahead. Often expectations get ahead of reality and financial markets are susceptible to this human behavior.