The Weekly Economic & Market Recap
February 24, 2017
We are all aware that the U.S. Equity markets have been on fire with the S&P 500 increasing by 5.25% year to date. Less apparent is the fact that the 10-Year Treasury has also advanced in value with its yield declining from 2.45% to 2.31% over the same period. This is somewhat unusual as these two asset classes tend to be negatively correlated. We think the current relationship may be routed in a difference in the timing of current market expectations. Since last November’s presidential election, stock investors have been focused on the prospects of a dramatic increase in GDP and corporate earnings growth resulting from fiscal spending policies, tax reform and the relaxation of various business regulations. The bond market is not totally discounting these potential growth catalysts as rates overall have risen since Trump was elected President, although signaling it may take longer than expected to become reality. This week, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin acknowledged that his goal for significant tax reform by August was ambitious. Furthermore, Arios Media cited Republican sources saying infrastructure could fall into 2018 because of prioritization of healthcare changes, immigration policies and regulatory reform.